Repercussions and Implications of an Israeli Strike on Iran
Posted July 8, 2009
By Brian Doyle
CNI Staff Writer
brian@cnionline.org
As Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Admiral Mullen stated recently, a strike on Iran would destabilize the whole Middle East. After Vice President Biden’s remarks this weekend that the US would not stand in the way of an Israeli strike, Iranian leaders made clear that they would launch a “decisive” response to any attack. They would be sure to incite trouble for Israel via their proxies Hamas and Hezbollah. They would also encourage their friends in Iraq to step up attacks on the American forces there and incite sectarian violence, just as the US is drawing down forces. More broadly, President Obama’s Cairo speech will have been a vain effort, chances of Israeli-Palestinian reconciliation diminished, Al-Qaeda emboldened, regional US allies undermined, and anti-American sentiment hardened. It is likely such an attack would not eliminate Iran’s nuclear program and only increase their determination to acquire nuclear weapons.
Iraq
One of the most direct routes for an Israeli strike on Iran would involve flying over Iraq. Currently, the US military still controls Iraqi airspace but is pledged to uphold Iraqi sovereignty. Being that the Maliki government is virtually guaranteed not to allow Israeli over flight of Iraqi airspace, an Israeli strike on Iran would likely put the US in the awkward position of having to shoot down US-made and paid-for Israeli planes or demonstrate to the Iraqis we are not serious about respecting their sovereignty.
Were the US to allow an Israeli over flight, trust between American soldiers and officials and their Iraqi counterparts would evaporate, while the mass of Iraqi civilians would become much more hostile to the American presence. This would be manifest in increased support for anti-American attacks. Iran would likely try to incite anti-American violence and sectarian conflict via the down but not out Mahdi Army and other groups. This would either drag American troops back into bloody urban battles between sects or force the Maliki government to rely on support of their Iranian coreligionists. Given the outpouring of anti-American public feeling (in addition to the feelings of personal betrayal they would surely feel) Iraqi leaders would further distance themselves from the US and likely demand an accelerated or immediate withdrawal of US troops.
The Arab World and Al-Qaeda
An Israeli attack would be disastrous for our closest Arab allies, Egypt and Jordan. The pro-American stances of these countries’ governments and their recognition of Israel are very unpopular. American support for autocracies in Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Yemen, and the Gulf states already makes them unpopular and illegitimate in the eyes of many of their people. An Israeli attack on Iran that violated Arab air space would be a public relations catastrophe for these regimes, no matter what level of damage Iran’s weapons program suffered. Beyond the Arab world, the public outrage would make it harder for the Turkish and Pakistani regimes to publicly support the US. After the leaking of an apparent secret agreement between Saudi and Israeli intelligence officials to allow Israeli over flight of Saudi air space, all Arab countries will be loathe to cooperate or appear to cooperate with Israel, no matter how discreetly.
Moreover, an Israeli strike would crush the spirit of good will created by Obama’s election and speech in Cairo. Given the strong political and financial support the US gives Israel, much of the Arab world believes that everything done by Israel has US blessing and support. It would seem to many Arabs that Obama is only the latest in a long line of Americans who have talked of freedom and peace while not actually doing anything about it. This would play right into the hands of Osama bin Laden, who has tapped into the deep grievances against Arab tyrannies and American support for them and Israel. Whatever the misgivings most Arabs feel for bin Laden, he will appear as one who speaks the truth while Obama comes across as the latest in a long line of American dissemblers.
An Israeli attack would also likely be a deathblow to the already faint hopes for an Israeli-Palestinian settlement. Palestinian leaders were already disheartened by Netanyahu’s stance in his recent speech on Israeli-Palestinian peace. An attack on Iran would probably reinforce their perception that Israel generally and Netanyahu in particular are not committed to peace, but seek to dominate them.
Iran
While Iran’s nuclear efforts would be set back by an Israeli air raid, military and nuclear experts virtually all feel that it would not eliminate the program, which has been dispersed throughout the country in hardened facilities, just to make such a strike more difficult. Already, Iranian leaders feel besieged, especially given the popular dissatisfaction with the recent election. With tens of thousands of American combat forces in its neighbors Iraq and Afghanistan, American bases in Turkey (a NATO member) and the Gulf States, nuclear armed and American-backed Pakistan on its eastern border, not to mention being with in range of nuclear-armed India and Israel, Iran sees itself as surrounded by American forces and allies. An Israeli strike will only increase Iran’s sense of vulnerability and its leaders’ perception that it needs nuclear weapons more than ever.
While the recent turmoil may have showcased stark divisions within Iranian society, Iranians remain a very nationalistic people with great pride in their country and culture. An outside attack could be just what the mullahs want as it would trigger patriotic, rally around the flag sentiment that would help heal recent wounds from the election fiasco and shore up domestic support for the regime.
No “Green Light”
For these reasons, Obama was right to make clear that Biden’s careless remarks about Israel being free to bomb Iran were not a “green light” for an Israeli air raid. It is understandable that American diplomats and policy makers want to “keep the military option on the table” and that the threat of an Israeli attack may serve as a useful coercive bargaining tool vis-à-vis Iran. But the US should do everything possible to prevent to prevent Israel from carrying out any bombing. The fallout of such an attack would be disastrous to American interests in the Middle East—possibly worse than that of Iran actually acquiring a nuclear bomb.
Tags: air strike, al-Qaeda, Arab World, Barack Obama, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Joe Biden, nuclear proliferation, Nuclear weapons
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Does anyone really think the Israelis or the powerful pro Israel political faction in this country, give a hang what the consequestes for America or our allies are in an attack upon Iraq? The Zionists want one thing. Dead Arabs. Or anyone who does not adore their drive for Jewish Manifest Destiny. That to them is only safe place for Jews to be.
Iranians aren’t Arabs….